Let’s focus on the real problem facing the economy!

December 17, 2008

Let’s focus on the real problemAs we close out 2008, it is safe to say we are somewhere between a recession and a depression. It may not be the great depression of the 30’s but it is not a little recession either. At this point it is probably the Great Recession of 08. We do not want the economy to get any worse because that would be very bad for America and the rest of the world.  We must focus our attention and resources on the root of the problem and not on the collateral damage caused by the problem. The bleeding will stop if we close the wound and address the source of the problem.$700 billion dollars plus is being used to bandage the credit markets in a failed attempt to restore American’s confidence in the banking system that in large part caused the problem by making loans available to people who could not afford to buy homes. This large infusion of cash into the banking system will never cure the problem because there is no assurance that the banks will loan this money to people who want to buy homes. The Federal government has already taken unprecedented steps to improve the economy by buying mortgage backed securities, by lowering  long term interest rates to historic lows, by bailing out insurance companies, banks and unregulated financial institutions, by encouraging banks to work with delinquent home owners to modify their loans to keep them out of foreclosure and by promising to bailout the American auto industry to prevent massive layoffs.  Much has been done by our government but the actions so far have not stabilized the economy and the housing sector because they have not attacked the festering wound. The problem is based on the law of supply and demand. As a result of all the foreclosures there is a glut of homes on the market. When the supply far exceeds the demand, prices must fall to attract buyers. The root of the problem is decreasing home values caused by excessive inventory. Because of decreasing home values, we have lost trillions of dollars of equity, borrowing power and buying power. Lenders do not want to loan money to people to buy real estate when real estate is depreciating in value and people do not want to buy real estate today that will be worth less tomorrow. So what should the Federal government do to stabilize home prices and reverse depreciating home values? The answer is simple and it directly attacks the problem.The government should make better use of the $700 billion dollars plus and start buying homes on the market thereby decreasing the inventory. Many of the homes on the market are owned by banks and as a condition of buying bank owned homes the government should require the banks to segregate the funds in a pool for the sole purpose of loaning the money to people who need a mortgage to buy a home. The decrease in inventory will cause home prices to stabilize, rather than decrease because the supply will be in balance with the demand.  People will want to buy today rather than wait until tomorrow when the price will be higher. This will generate the needed demand and when demand exceeds supply, prices will rise again. When home prices start to rise, the problem is over and the economy will heal and the government can gradually increase interest rates to prevent the real estate market from over heating. The housing sector led us into this financial crisis and it will eventually lead us out of this crisis but the government must intervene and eliminate the excess inventory which the banks inadvertently caused. What will our government do with all these homes? There is plenty of need for affordable housing in this country. The government can fix the houses up and rent them out to displaced families who lost their homes to foreclosure, minorities, and low income families. Forget, for now, about improving our infra structure as our President Elect is proposing  and concentrate solely on housing. Put the unemployed back to work by renovating, remodeling and managing these homes. Once we get the housing problem under control, we can work on our roads and bridges. The taxpayers would be better served by holding title to homes rather than worthless mortgage paper which is what the $700 billion is currently buying. The real estate values will eventually increase and over time the government can sell these homes in an orderly fashion for a higher price and pay down the national debt.In twelve months or less we should all be cured of this terrible hangover caused by an excessive supply of homes on the market. Let us all be reminded that all bubbles eventually burst. Real estate prices simply rose too quickly and the market could not support the inflated values. Real estate is still a very good conservative investment because it is more than just an investment; it is our home. America’s population is constantly growing but there will never be more land in America. There will always be a demand for homes and as long as the supply does not get excessive, prices will rise.

 The lesson to be learned from the last five years is that if you are receiving more than a modest return on your investment, something is wrong and a bubble may be forming.  The next time we experience something that seems too good to be true, stand back, resist the temptation to jump in and yell loudly for others to stay clear.

-  Dominic J. Mancini , Attorney at Law

________________________________

 

Dominic J. Mancini has been practicing real estate law in the Chicago land area since 1975. He is a graduate of UCLA (1972) and DePaul University School of Law (1975). He has been involved in residential and commercial real estate closings, leases, zoning issues, mortgage foreclosures and landlord tenant issues. He has conducted a number of 1031 exchanges and reverse exchanges. He has given numerous presentations for first time home buyers and has been a licensed real estate broker since 1977. He is in private practice in Hinsdale, Illinois. You can reach Mr. Mancini at (630) 325-2580 or Domm1@msn.com.

Buy Phoenix AZ Real Estate Low Sell Real Estate High (later)

December 13, 2008

You have all heard the investment phrase, ‘Buy Low Sell High’. Buy ( Real Estate ) Low - Sell  High

However, how do you actually do that? at least when it comes to buying real estate as in Phoenix AZ Real Estate.

Let me tell you story which might help shed some light on this investing “ Holy Grail ”

Finance 101 will often tell you that, “the best time to buy is when opportunities are created out of seller necessity. A couple I have worked with for some time, just bought a home straight out of a Builders Inventory (these days, builders have taken homes back from a buyer who could not qualify for a loan.) The original price on this home was more than $700K. They bought this brand large beautiful new home in a wonderful community of Peoria for $400K.

Now, this couple has bought this new build home low. Have they purchase at the lowest? My crystal ball has not worked as well as I would like. However, based upon their needs, wants and desires, they have bought “Low” and have a wonderful home to raise their family. How do they sell High? Well maybe the correct term is sell their real estate “Higher”.

Again, my home buying crystal ball is on the fritz. However, they have a very affordable 30-year fixed rate that they can comfortably afford and do not have plans to sell for many years to come. A historical outlook will suggest that their plans to live in this home for 5-7 years and possibly longer will give them an excellent chance to build equity, save on taxes, sell higher, and most importantly give their family a place to call home.

I would say that I have never seen so many great buying opportunities for the prudent, savvy, patient and credit-worthy real estate investor and/or new home buyer.

More and More these days, in Phoenix and the surrounding towns of Peoria, Tempe , and Fountain Hills to name a few great Arizona cities, Opportunities abound. You just have to know where to look.

——————————————————————————–

Copyright © James Wexler  * Buy ( Real Estate ) Low - Sell High *

If you are a Phoenix AZ real estate investor or a Scottsdale AZ real estate buyer, Call 480.221.8080 to find out more about Phoenix AZ Short Sales and Scottsdale AZ short  Sales

Will 4.5% Interest Rates be enough for the Phoenix AZ real estate market??

December 4, 2008

We may not be here yet, BUT, we are much closer than you may think. In an effort to stabilize the steep and continued and what seems to be an accelerating decline in real estate prices, the US Treasury announced (yesterday) that is in talks with the now Government run entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to come up with a plan to try and reduce mortgage rates to a goal of 4.5% or better. Will 4.5% Interest Rates be enough for the Phoenix AZ real estate market??

The preliminary outline of the plan would focus on the FED buying a large portion or all the ‘bad loans’ that are in the portfolios of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Thus, increasing liquidity for these entities to lend money. The more ‘free-flow’ of money to buyers of real estate. The larger supply of money , will be the nature of free market economics will result in lower interest rates and fees in the mortgage and lending markets.

I should mention, that to some extent, lower interest rates have been effective in stimulate the real estate market. Two days ago, the mortgage industry announced that largest amount of applications for mortgages in more than 3 years as consumers rushed to re-finance homes. I should also mention that the vast majority of mortgage applications where ‘re-finance’, not purchases as homeowners still cannot sell homes.

First of all, this is a tremendous effort by the FED to do everything within its power to stabilize housing. However, will it work??

Yes, I think it will surely help. Home prices are at 4 year lows. Down more than 30% across the country. 22% in the last year alone according to the Case=Shiller Index.  Add onto that ‘fire-sale’ , mortgage rates of 4.5% and (dare I say it??) you have cheap or at least much more affordable housing.

Yes, it will help. A great deal in my opinion. However, I do not think it is enough. The average home buyer is still too afraid of continued recession, stock market woes and unemployment concerns to part with large down payment requirements.

I remain cautiously optimistic …. BUT … I still maintain interest rates are not the issue. Rates are low and have been low for some time. Most mortgages are affect only small dollar amounts. Rarely, enough to make a buying decision or not.

Personal Liquidity is the issue. Down Payments are the issue. They require cash and people do not have any. Or, do not wish to part with it.

When down payment requirements change, so will a recovery in housing.!!

—————————————

Copyright © James Wexler *Will 4.5% Interest Rates be enough for the Phoenix AZ real estate market??*

If you are a Phoenix AZ real estate investor or a Scottsdale AZ real estate buyer, lower interest rates and Phoenix AZ real estate prices down more than 30% provide a great opportunity to get thedeal of a lifetime.

Call 480.221.8080 to find out more about Phoenix AZ Short Sales and Scottsdale AZ short  Sales

Remember these 3 Tips before you buy that Scottsdale AZ home

November 23, 2008

As a Scottsdale AZ real estate agent, I interact with real estate buyers and sellers. As a result, you can imagine the range of emotions I hear on a daily basis. If you are a Phoenix AZ real estate owner or real estate investor, the emotions3 Tips before you buy that Scottsdale AZ home range from shock to sadness to anger. I am sympathetic as I too am a home owner.

I do get to balance the frustration with buyers who feel that this is a once in a lifetime sale.  Phoenix AZ real estate prices are down more than 30% in the last 12 months alone. Even town like Scottsdale AZ, Fountain Hills AZ and Paradise Valley AZ are down more than 15%.

Most buyers, are still nervous as cash is still king and buying homes requires as much, or more, than 20% down payments. However, for the most part, they feel like kids in a real estate candy store. They are licking there lips and getting ready to buy at deep discount, bargain basement, even going out of business (no pun intended) sale prices.

I want to encourage those who have been planning to buy and who can truly afford to buy to take advantage of a buyer’s market, deep discount prices, low mortgage rates, tax benefits to take a leap of faith and buy.

However, I also want to caution buyers to consider the following real estate buying rules so you don’t fall into a trap like many others have in the last few years.

  • Don’t take on more house than you need to - one of the biggest mistakes that real estate buyers make is buying much more than they need and worse buying much more than they can afford.
  • The impossible can happen - gas prices have gone down 60% in 4 months, the S&P 500 is down 45% for the year, real estate prices have dropped more than 30% in the last 12 months. These were impossible events to think could happen. Make sure you can afford what you buy and can afford to stay in the home for a long time.
  • Diamonds are forever. Cash is not! - make sure you have sufficient reserves in the event of a prolonged recession, depression or emergency. If you don’t have at least 6 months of expenses in savings, dont buy!

Today’s home buyer is seeing opportunities that they may never have expected.

I encourage you to buy a home only if you can stay in your home for at least 5 years, put down at least 10% (20% is better) and get 30-year fixed mortgage.

If you can handle the payment comfortably then history has proven that you will build a nest egg while enjoying all the other benefits home ownership has to offer.

————————————————————————————

Copyright © James Wexler *Remember these 3 Tips before you buy that Scottsdale AZ home  *

If you are listing your home as a short sale in Phoenix Arizona or Scottsdale Arizona make sure you hire an agent who knows how to do short sales and has the experience to get the job done.

Call 480.221.8080 to find out more about Phoenix AZ Short Sales and Scottsdale bank owned homes

5 Real Estate Investing Rules of the Pros

November 16, 2008

According to a recent RealtyTrac report, Phoenix AZ foreclosures have risen more then 25% in the last year. In fact, more then half of all sales in greater Phoenix AZ (Maricopa County) are foreclosure sales. As a result, Phoenix AZ real estate prices have dropped more than 31% according to the S&P|Case Shiller Index.5 Phoenix AZ Real Estate Investing Ideas you Must Know

What does all this bad news mean to you??  Well, struggling real estate sales can be great news if you are a home buyer or Phoenix AZ real estate or Scottsdale AZ real estate investor.Usually, cliche’s like ‘be careful of sharks who smell blood in the water’ is used to make buyer beware of quick-buck artists and get-rich quick schemes. However, if you are a real estate investor looking to buy homes in and around greater Phoenix AZ, ask yourself if you can be real estate investment shark?

If so, there are homes listed for short sale, foreclosures and bank owned real estate (REO) that are selling as much as 50% discount prices to the high levels of 2005. Even new Phoenix AZ new home builders are selling inventory specs at or below it cost the builders to actually construct the home.

2 Renowned builders, Toll Brothers is having a Toll Brothers new home Expo and Camelot homes, a Scottsdale AZ luxury home builder, is having a weekend sales extravaganza. If you want great prices, financing options, and seller contributions, go visit the sales offices and field models of Toll Brothers and/or Camelot Homes today.

If you have been planning on buying a home , here are 5 Phoenix AZ Real Estate Investing Ideas that the millionaire real estate investors are preaching and living by in today’s market.

  1. Don’t follow the herd - while everyone else is selling, you may want to buy. You can take advantage of seller paranoia, fear and over-reaction of emotion. You still need to be prudent and know that you are likely not going to be buying at the absolute bottom of the market, but you can get a great piece of real estate at steeply discounted prices.
  2. Dont’ be afraid to make mistakes - let me be clear. You will not make money on every investment you ever make. Anyone who tells you that they have, is likely lying. The key is to make investment decisions with sound, prudent investment strategies and don’t risk money you cannot afford to lose. Think, ‘don’t put all your eggs in one basket’ If you diversify and protect your money, you will have a high likelihood of making money over time.
  3. Do not be afraid to say ‘No”-  Do not fall in love with any one house, stock or any one investment. Make sure you make offers based upon your investment strategy. Do not chase seller counter-offers. If so, you are letting seller dictate your investment strategy. There is no last deal. There is no ‘last’ opportunity. If a deal appears too good to be true, it most often is!
  4. Cash is king - if you are a cash buyer, you have a tremendous amount of leverage in getting offers accepted in a credit crisis in which sellers are well aware of the limited amount of borrowers who can qualify for a loan even if they want to buy. Further, protect your cash, do not ‘go all-in’ as they say in poker. Always, keep reserves should you need to hold-on to investments longer then your strategy had outlined or should another investment opportunity present itself.
  5. Slow and steady win the race - turn off late night television. Those get-rich investment programs touted by modern day snake-oil salesman are just that. If they worked, these guys would be following their own advice, not selling books for $79.9. Real Estate investing works. However, it takes time, lots of time, patience and learning from your mistakes. Rome wasn’t built over night , the pyramids were not built in a day. And, you cannot build your fortune quickly either.

Again, real estate investing is not for all people. Make sure you only take investment advice from a real estate attorney or experienced real estate agent who has real estate investment representative.

————————————————————————————

Copyright © James Wexler *5 Phoenix AZ Real Estate Investing Rules of the pros*

If you are investing in Scottsdale AZ real estate or Phoenix AZ real estate, make sure you work with a real estate broker who knows the Phoenix bank owned real estate market and the Phoenix AZ foreclosure market.

Call 480.221.8080 to find out more about Phoenix AZ Short Sales and Scottsdale AZ short  Sales

Scottsdale Real Estate Buyer Frenzy

October 1, 2008

There is (only) one bright sides to dropping Phoenix real estate prices. Value, affordability and great real estate deals. Wait, that’s 3. Oh well.

Yesterday, the Case - Shiller home price index of 20 major U.S. cities released a report that showed Phoenix real estate home prices dropped a record in July from the previous July 2007.   Scottsdale Real Estate Buyer Frenzy

Las Vegas and Phoenix , - remained the weakest cities, falling nearly 30% in the past year.

As a result of these major price declines for Phoenix, Peoria, Glendale, Fountain Hills and even Scottsdale real estate, home buyers are stepping off the sidelines and becoming interested in Phoenix real estate.

Phoenix Real estate buyers are looking for bargain basement prices and if Scottsdale or Paradise Valley homes become available at these major price discounts buyers are motivated.

Yesterday, I called a North Scottsdale listing agent about a brand new homes for sale in Scottsdale.  At first glance, seemed to be priced at nearly 50% below the 2005 Phoenix real estate market prices.

The Scottsdale home was a foreclosure home that was now bank owned (REO), not a short sale and being marketed by the Scottsdale Real estate agent as a lender owned home.

The home had been on the Phoenix real estate multiple listing service (AR MLS) for only 1 day. However, the Scottsdale real estate agent informed me that they had already received an offer.  Additionally, the Scottsdale real estate agent told me that he had received calls from other Phoenix real estate buyers and had two showings earlier in the day.

I called my home buyer and we drove to look at this luxury North Scottsdale home right away. As we arrived, there was another Scottsdale real estate agent driving away with a new home buyer. We looked inside the home and noticed that there was nearly 10 Phoenix real estate agent business cards on the counter.

Clearly, this Scottsdale real estate was a great opportunity as a real estate investment or a new home buyers.

By the way, as my home buyer were driving away, a Phoenix real estate agent was speeding up the driveway to show a home buyer this Scottsdale real estate investment opportunity.

I know these are challenging times for Phoenix real estate owners, Scottsdale real estate investors, and vacation homes in Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills, AZ.

However, a small silver lining to the fall in home prices is real estate buying by those who can get a loan.  In fact, the Case Shiller housing index reported that while Phoenix real estate is off 30%, the pace of the decline has slowed, particularly over the last three months.

As the above anecdote shows, when short sales, bank owned homes, lender owned real estate (REO’s) are listed homes for sale in Phoenix, buyers are eager to not only look, but to buy.

In my opinion, the frenzy of Scottsdale real estate buying when prices are down more than 30% shows me that we are at , or very near, a real estate market price bottom.

Call me for a home tour of short sales in Phoenix, or bank owned homes in Paradise Valley, Scottsdale or Fountain Hills.

————————————————————————————

Copyright © James Wexler *Scottsdale Real Estate Buyer Frenzy *

To learn more about life in Scottsdale and living in luxury communities in  Scottsdale , please contact, James Wexler (480) 221-8080 for your Phoenix | Scottsdale area Real Estate needs

The end of capitalism is upon us

September 24, 2008

Those of you who are kind enough to take time out of your busy days to read my blog, rants, ravings and musing of all things Phoenix | Scottsdale real estate, know that I am not happy with the proposed bailout of the banking system in its current form.end of capitalism in phoenix scottsdale

The proposal, now being debated before Congress, calls for more than a $700 Billion (call it a cool Trillion) bad-debt fund that would, essentially, buy all the worthless debt from the struggling major financial institutions. By worthless, I mean loans that are larger in value than the homes that they collateralize.

I call this the end of capitalism.

I do not say this because it offers little help to Phoenix, Scottsdale, Peoria, Glendale, Carefree, Mesa real estate market and home values.

I call it the end of capitalism because the bailout by the Federal Government is giving a free pass to corporate America. Basically, big banks were able to participate in 100% of the profits. Yet, virtually, none of the losses.

Think about it like this.

If you could go to Las Vegas, wager and win keep you profits would you? If you do not win, the house would come and give your money back in the form of a low interest loan and say ‘try again’. Now, with this new found money, you have a second chance. If this second change is successful you keep all the profits above and beyond these low interest loans. If this second change does not prove successful, you don’t have to pay the money back.

This bailout of those who are not rewarded for taking risk is completely opposite to what built our economy which rewards for risk. And of course, that risk comes at a price if you don’t succeed.

What makes matters worse is that if the program does not prove successful and the banks cannot right the ship, the owner of this $700 Billion in bad debt and worthless loans are the American Taxpayer. Most Americans would probably not make this investment the Government is making for us.

Does it get worse?? Possibly.

What scares me the most is if this bailout plan actually works and the government takes the debt as the banking system pumps more loans on the market with the new found lottery ticket winning from the FED.

I see the government becoming the owner of a trillion dollars in REO debt as a result of these worthless loans. I call them GEO (think REO, but Government owned real estate) properties.

Ultimately, the government will need to sell this inventory of homes. I expect a flood of GEO real estate on the Phoenix, Arizona real estate market.

These homes will be sold at steep discounts to already sharp price declines as the government has little concern for profits and losses (as we well know).

Government owned real estate will further drive down prices (if that is even possible) and paralyze any chance of homes that are not short sales, REO ,  GEO’s and bank owned homes in the greater Phoenix area from selling.

We do not need more homes for sale in Greater Phoenix, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Glendale, Peoria, we need less.

Most people in Phoenix, Glendale, Peoria, Gilbert, Chandler, and most Americans have most of their net worth tied up in their primary residence. Until, supply of homes in Phoenix stabilizes, real estate prices will continue to decline. Until we resolve this issue, Americans will not be able to recover the current economic stranglehold.

Either, the government should buy your loan if you are in trouble as a result of your financial planning or they should not do the same thing for big banks.

Do not let banks have a free pass.

I suggest that we are able to participate in a greater amount in the profits and are offered more security in terms of capital stock. We should be shareholders of the company if we are going to be partners with the banks.

Equity participation for investment risk is how the banks would make an investment. Why should we be any different? Capitalism should apply. There is no reason for the Government (U.S. Taxpayers) to make bad investment decisions.The banks wouldn’t and either would you!

Do not let this bailout be the end of capitalism.

Call you Congressman and let your opinion be heard.

___________________________________________

Copyright © James Wexler * Luxury Retirement Communities in Scottsdale*

call me today at (480) 221-8080 to learn more about life in North Scottsdale and living in luxury retirement communities in Scottsdale.

1031 Exchange Opportunities in Phoenix

September 18, 2008

From 2001-2005 the greater Phoenix area experienced a real estate boom that saw gains of more than 100% return on capital appreciation (Phoenix home values) in most areas. Some areas, like Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley, AZ saw even greater gains in real estate prices.

If you purchased property in Metro Phoenix, Glendale, Peoria, Scottsdale, between 2001-2005, it is likely you have equity or capital appreciation in your Phoenix area homes.

If you are considering selling you home, there are several IRS laws that allow exclusion of taxation on capital gains made on real estate. 1031 Exchange Opportunities in Phoenix

The most familiar is the 1031 exchange. The other is called a Section 121 Exclusion.

a 1031 exchange is a tax vehicle used to defer capital gains taxes on when selling an investment property at a profit and then using the proceeds to buy another investment property.

The key points of a 1031 exchange is that capital gains are deferred, not excluded. This means that when you take the entire proceeds of the sale of the fist property and use them for the sale of a second (AZ investment) property, there would be no capital gains realized.

Here are the basic rules of 1031 exchange:

  • 1031 exchange is for investment property only
  • Capital gains are deferred, not excluded
  • buyer must identify the new property 45 days when the previous property was sold (transferred)
  • Close of escrow on the new investment property must be within 180 days of the sale of the previous investment property
  • A Qualified intermediary - should be in the full-time business of facilitating 1031 exchanges. The role of a Qualified Intermediary is similar to, but not identical to, the role of an escrow company. The Qualified Intermediary is essential to completing a successful and valid delayed exchange. The Qualified Intermediary does not provide legal or specific tax advice to the exchanger. The qualified intermediary is used to hold the funds in a third-party escrow.
  • The buyer can never take possession of the funds between the two transactions

A Section 121 exclusion also deals with capital gains on real estate. However, unlike a 1031 exchange, a section 121 exclusion is for a primary residence only. You cannot use your section 121 exclusion for an investment property (or a second home).

  • $250,000 of capital gains can be excluded from taxes for individual filers.
  • $500,000 of capital gains can be excluded from joint (married) filers.
  • The owner must have lived int he property for at least 2 years

There are a variety of real estate investment & tax planning strategies that you can use to take advantage of the many great opportunities for homeowners to sell their Phoenix, AZ investment properties and/or primary residence and roll the money into new real estate opportunities in Maricopa County. Yes, you are selling lower than you would have years ago. However, you are buying even lower. (see: Sell Low, Buy Lower).

Here are 3 great income tax strategies you can use to buy real estate in greater Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Peoria to maximize profit by limiting the amount of taxes you may need to pay.

  • Investment property acquired with no 1031 exchange and converted to a primary residence
  • Investment property acquired with a 1031 exchange and converted to a primary residence
  • Primary residence converted to a an investment property and then sold in a 1031 exchange to purchase a new investment property

Used correctly, the 1031 exchange and the section 121 exclusion, in theory, if you continue to sell the new property and continually use the proceeds to buy an additional property using a 1031 exchange you may never need to pay the capital gains taxes.

It is important to note that I am not an attorney, CPA, or qualified intermediary. The context above is  for information purpose only.

If you are going to use any IRS tax strategies or planning, I strongly suggest you speak with an attorney and/or CPA for advice.

___________________________________________________

Copyright © James Wexler * 1031 Exchange Opportunities in Phoenix *

Contact James Wexler (480) 221-8080 for your Phoenix | Scottsdale area Real Estate needs

What goes up like a Rocket and down like a Balloon?

August 28, 2008

Do you need 3 guesses? Probably not.  It’s Home Prices in Phoenix, AZ.

In Maricopa County, Arizona which includes Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Fountain Hills, Mesa, Peoria and Chandler home prices exploded from 2001-2005; Skyrocketing more than 100% in most places.real estate housing bubble

In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported Maricopa County as the fastest growing real estate market up more than 40% in 2005 alone.

Hence, the proverbial real estate bubble.

And we know what happened next, things slowed down considerably. And most experts would say that the resulting steep decline in home prices over the following 3 years was the Real Estate bubble bursting.

However, I am going to argue with these analysts and say that the Housing Bubble did not burst in Greater Phoenix. And that’s the problem.

Lynnsy Logue describes it perfectly, “America’s housing bubble has not exactly burst. It’s just sprung a leak the size of your average mortgage banker.

Real estate is tied to a lot of personal emotions. Real Estate agents and other industry professionals would try to convince you that it is a business decision that must be made with what is the best financial result in mind. Although, in theory this may be what is best for financial health, we know this does not happen.

On Wall Street when stocks drop, they drop fast. In fact, often times, before recovery can occur there must be one significant event causing a popular Wall Street term “Capitulation’. Like hitting rock bottom.

At that point, consumers (hopefully) regain confidence and stability returns and in time, prices rise again.

Unfortunately, this does not happen in real estate. When someone wants to sell their home. They leave it on the market for extended periods of time. If the home does not result in offers, the seller typically small price reductions. Rarely, enough to initiate a quick sale.

This behavior is a snap shot of what has transpired in real estate over the past several years.

If the bubble burst, home prices would have dropped 30% and the pain would have been over and done with. Much like tearing off a band-aid. It hurts, but its over quickly.

Instead,  like air leaking out of a balloon as it slowly drops from the sky, we are watching slow 1-3% quarterly price declines. Slow torture. Very Painful.

Why is any of this important ???

If you want to sell your home, you let the bubble burst.

If you have your home on the market for a maximum of 30 days and do not receive an offer it is priced to high. Period!!

You need to lower the price of your home 3-5% minimum. If you do not receive any offers within 3 weeks. Your home is priced too high. Period!

If you really need to sell your home then let the bubble burst. It hurts initially. However, ultimately, it is the less painful option.

Here are the names of experts in pricing and selling homes quickly in today’s market.

_______________________________________________________

Copyright © 2008 James Wexler *What goes up like a Rocket and down like a Balloon?*

Contact James Wexler (480) 221-8080 for your Phoenix | Scottsdale area Real Estate needs

Is Alan Greenspan to blame for the Housing crisis?

August 16, 2008

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported, …

A record numbers of foreclosures helped drive down prices 7.6% ; Phoenix was down 22.5%

It does not matter if you live in Phoenix, Paradise Valley, or Fountain Hills. Whether you are rich, poor, or live in a different Country, when people lose money they like to point fingers of blame. It is ingrained in us since youth not to be wrong, so it must always be someone else’s fault. who is to blame for housing price declines in Phoenix

Today, When it comes to the housing crisis, people are losing much of their net worth; especially in Greater Phoenix and there is some blame to go around.

So who really is to blame?

  • Borrowers ? greed and buying more than they could afford?
  • Lenders? greed in making money with easy underwriting?
  • Banks ? packaging risky loans to Wall Street?
  • Wall Street - ? selling pools of risky CMO’s (collateralized mortgage obligations) to investors?
  • Government -? - lack of regulation ?

Tj085 has written a fantastic multi-part history of the Housing Crisis detailing the Roots of the problem.
A name that is now being talked about who may be the key factor is financial uber-guru and financial world icon, and some say ‘Rock Star’ is Alan Greenspan.

Alan Greenspan, Head of the Federal Reserve and maker of monetary policy introduced lax lending standards to halt the inflation of the 1990’s bull (stock) market.

After he achieved this goal with great success he was challenged by the dot -com bubble bust in early 2001 and then the tragic events of 9/11. What did he do to stimulate the economy you ask??

After 9/11 he continued to ease lending guidelines (think sub-prime) and more significantly, he started lowering interest rates and lowering interest rates and lowering interest rates.

Under Greenspan the Fed cut rates from 6.5 percent in late 2000 to 1.0 percent in mid-2003.

As interest rates continued to drop and sub-prime and alternative (Alt-A) mortgages became easily available, builders built and buyers bought and investors invested.

The Housing market began to grow in 2001 and boiled until 2005 and grow into the Real estate bubble that burst at the end of July of 2005.

Look at the bright side, Alan Greenspan sees the bottom in housing next year and he cannot be so far off 2 times in a row! Can he?

_______________________________________________________

Copyright © 2008 By James Wexler, All Rights Reserved. *Is Alan Greenspan to blame for the Housing crisis?*

Contact James Wexler (480) 221-8080 for all your Phoenix | Scottsdale area Real Estate needs

Next Page »